Turkey: November I/P increases by 11.4%

In November, industrial production in Turkey increased by 11.4% compared to the same month of the previous year, according to calendar adjusted data; Seasonally and calendar adjusted industrial production increased by 3.3% compared to the previous month.

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In November, industrial production in Turkey increased by 11.4% compared to the same month of the previous year, according to calendar adjusted data; Seasonally and calendar adjusted industrial production increased by 3.3% compared to the previous month. According to unadjusted data, industrial production increased by 14.7% compared to the same period of the previous year. Our forecast was for industrial production to increase by 7.8% yoy in November, for adjusted data.

 From this point of view, we observe that we received quite strong data in November compared to the expectations. In November, a certain loss of momentum could be expected due to the fluctuations in foreign exchange and interest rates, but we saw that the production line was not affected much in the relevant month. In terms of leading indicators, the capacity utilization rate and the trend in exports remained strong. This kept the production momentum strong in November. Industrial production continued the momentum it had gained in the opening and normalization period, after the bottom of the coronavirus pandemic. Despite the momentum changes, annual industrial output has remained in positive territory since mid-2020.

When we look at the details; mining and quarrying contracted by 1.6% on a monthly basis and increased by 7.6% on an annual basis. While an increase of 3.8% was observed in the manufacturing industry on a monthly basis, there was a growth of 12.5% ​​on an annual basis. In the electricity, gas and steam group, an increase of 0.4% was observed on a monthly basis, while the annual growth was realized at the level of 4%. On a monthly basis, capital goods increased by 7.2%, durable goods by 5.1%, non-durable goods by 3.5% and intermediate goods by 2.1%. The energy did not change. Looking at the annual changes in the related items; Intermediate goods increased by 14.4%, non-durable consumer goods increased by 13.6%, durable goods increased by 12%, capital goods increased by 5.8% and energy increased by 4.3%.

We care about the balances to be created by monetary and fiscal policies in terms of production and growth outlook for the coming period. There are some downside reservations about December; We can generalize these factors in terms of the increase in the exchange rate, the global supply shortage, the resulting increase in production costs and the problems in the supply of inputs. The effects of the Omicron variant on the basis of supply and production will also need to be taken into account, as it may still create a blockage in the supply channels. In addition, we are experiencing the impact of the increase in raw material and energy prices, both globally and locally, due to foreign exchange shocks. The turmoil that took place in December, along with the Central Bank's decisions and the subsequent developments on the foreign exchange side, may have affected production and other indicators. We can expect a periodic loss of growth momentum, but within the overall outlook for 2021, we maintain the double-digit growth expectation of 10.8%.

In 2022, we expect a loss of momentum in industrial production and growth. We will look at the details of December and the following data within the framework of the global supply problems we have mentioned and the economic movements in the axis of exchange and interest rates. Probably the growth will slow down a bit, in 2022 we expect the current momentum to slow down towards the 4% path on the growth side. Inflation is a major problem and it also affects production/demand lines. In view of the Central Bank's monetary policy uncertainty, we expect the high growth momentum on the inflation side to continue and annual inflation rates to increase. In terms of exports, it is necessary to consider the situation in global markets within the framework of the variant effect, developments regarding this will be important in terms of maintaining the momentum on the foreign demand side. We consider global and internal stagflation risks as a source of reservation.

We think that the Central Bank should suspend rate cuts in the current period. As of the general management tendency of the economy, we do not foresee an increase in interest rates at this stage. We continue to see the general monetary policy trend in the direction of easing, but we think that such a loose situation may lead to an accelerated rise in exchange rates and inflation. We do not foresee any interest rate changes at the Central Bank meeting to be held next week, we expect the Central Bank to skip this month.

Kaynak: Tera Yatırım 
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Turkey: November I/P increases by 11.4%
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